Raycasts are not used by the physics system at all, only by end users and are a pure geometric intersection test. All other queries such as shape overlap/casts use functions that the physics system uses and so give results based upon where they would actually contact which isn't idential to a real intersection. This takes into account things like the contact offset etc. (https://docs.unity3d.com/ScriptReference/Physics2D-defaultContactOffset.html).

A raycast will give you the exact point of intersection but there are no cases in physics where a point moves through the world i.e. there's no point collider.

If the user wants to know where a circle would then they can move back by the radius of the circle but the physics system would also move it further back by the contact offset.

In short:

Raycast = Utility Intersection Test no used by physics so doesn't produce real contacts, just intersection
Shape Overlap/Cast = Real physics contact intersection tests.